Departing from basic concepts in abstract logics, this paper introduces two concepts: conjunctive and disjunctive limits. These notions are used to formalize levels of modal operators.

This article introduces some concepts that help exploring the ontological import of universal logic. It studies the notions of an antilogic and counterlogic associated to each logic and shows some of their properties. It presents the notion of galaxy, as the class of possible worlds compatible with a given logic.We explore some consequences of these developments.

Edelcio G. de Souza is a Brazilian logician and philosopher who has researches in the domains of abstract logic, non-classical systems, philosophy of science and the foundations of mathematics. This book is in his honor with the purpose of celebrating his 60th birthday. It contains some articles connected with the above topics and other subjects in logical investigations.

The present study assessed the language teachers' pedagogical beliefs and orientations in integrating technology in the online classroom and its effect on students' motivation and engagement. It utilized a cross-sectional correlational research survey. The study respondents were the randomly sampled 205 language teachers (μ= 437, n= 205) and 317 language students (μ= 1800, n= 317) of select higher educational institutions in the Philippines. The study results revealed that respondents hold positive pedagogical beliefs and orientations using technology-based teaching in their language (...) classroom. Test of difference showed that female teachers manifested a firmer belief in student-centered online language teaching than their male counterparts. However, the utilization and attitude towards technology in the language classroom is favorably associated with the male teachers. As to students' level of language learning motivation and engagement, it was found out that male and female students have high level of language learning engagement. Further, the test of relationship showed that the higher the teachers' belief in utilizing student-centered teaching to integrate technology in the language classroom, the higher the students are motivated and engaged in learning. In like manner, it was also revealed that teacher-centered belief is negatively correlated to student’s motivation and engagement in online language learning. In this regard, the pedagogical assumptions that hold EFL teachers positively to integrate technology in the language classroom. This study generally offers implications for enhancing language teacher's digital literacy to promote motivating, fruitful, and engaging language lessons for 21ts century learning. (shrink)

Naturalist theories of representation have been attacked on the grounds of being too liberal on the minimal conditions for intentionality: they treat several states that are not representational as genuine representations. Behind this attack lies the problem of demarcation: what are the minimal conditions for intentionality that a state should satisfy to be genuinely representational? What are the limits of intentionality? This paper develops a dual proposal to solve this problem. First, I defend the explanatory role criterion in order to (...) assess proposals of minimal conditions for intentionality. I start by proposing the success pattern condition: a state represents a given external feature provided that there is a success pattern present in the behavioural output, and the system uses this state as a proxy for the presence of this external feature. However, this condition is not sufficient for minimal intentionality – there are both intentional and non-intentional success patterns. Another minimal condition is, hence, required to draw this distinction. I propose the constancy mechanism condition: a state is representational provided that the system employs a constancy mechanism in its production. The success pattern and constancy mechanism conditions jointly constitute the dual proposal for minimal intentionality. I argue that this proposal is explanatorily justified and, so, properly demarcates the limits of intentionality. (shrink)

Nos Segundos Analíticos I. 14, 79a16-21 Aristóteles afirma que as demonstrações matemáticas são expressas em silogismos de primeira figura. Apresento uma leitura da teoria da demonstração científica exposta nos Segundos Analíticos I (com maior ênfase nos capítulo 2-6) que seja consistente com o texto aristotélico e explique exemplos de demonstrações geométricas presentes no Corpus. Em termos gerais, defendo que a demonstração aristotélica é um procedimento de análise que explica um dado explanandum por meio da conversão de uma proposição previamente estabelecida. (...) Em uma estrutura silogística, a proposição previamente estabelecida é a premissa maior e o termo mediador deve ser comensurado ao explanandum. O conjunto da premissa maior e da premissa menor (o explanans) é coextensivo ao explanandum, mas há uma assimetria intensional entre o explanans e o explanandum, de modo que apenas o primeiro explique o último. Por fim, defendo que o elemento identificado no termo mediador deve ser o mais apropriado para explicar precisamente o que certo explanandum é. (shrink)

Objetivamos discutir a crítica, avançada por Colin Howson em Hume's problem, segundo a qual o argumento do milagre (doravante, AM) comete a falácia da taxa-base. Por falácia da taxa-base, entende-se a negligência do valor da probabilidade prévia de determinada hipótese ou teoria T, P(T). Por sua vez, em uma de suas versões, AM assere que apenas assumindo que uma teoria científica madura T é aproximadamente verdadeira não faz de seu sucesso preditivo um milagre. Formalizado probabilisticamente, Howson argumenta que a conclusão (...) de AM, a probabilidade de que a teoria T seja aproximadamente verdadeira é grande, apenas se segue se assumirmos para T um valor não-negligenciável. Tal crítica de Howson despertou duas categorias de reação na literatura especializada: supondo que AM comete a falácia da taxa base, alguns autores propuseram abandonar AM enquanto um argumento para a tese epistemológica do realismo científico, ao passo que outros defenderam que apenas uma versão de AM comete a falácia da taxa-base; defendendo que AM não comete a falácia da taxa base, certos autores alegaram alguns problemas na formalização probabilística de AM, enquanto outros buscaram refinar tal formalização de modo que a nova evite a falácia em questão. Tendo apresentado esse estado da arte, investigaremos se a formalização probabilística do argumento do milagre é razoável. Discutiremos se ela acomoda a natureza de inferência à melhor explicação pressuposta no AM. Por fim, indicaremos, brevemente, algumas dificuldades para a crítica de Howson ao assumir-se que AM instancia, na verdade, uma abdução Peirceana. (shrink)

O objetivo desse artigo é introduzir um estudo sobre o histórico de relações entre Brasil e Vietnã, desde seu estabelecimento em 1989. Um relatório da PWC (2017) indica que, nas próximas três décadas, o Vietnã será o país com o maior crescimento econômico (PIB per capita) do mundo, registrando uma média de 5,1% anualmente. Em um contexto onde 4 dos 7 maiores PIBs do mundo estarão na Ásia (previsão para 2050), esse crescimento é expressivo e merece atenção. Através de revisão (...) bibliográfica da história recente do Vietnã, bem como uso de portais de ambos os governos e relatórios de pesquisa procura-se, em um primeiro momento, demonstrar as mudanças ocorridas recentemente no país e, em seguida, observar como se desenhou a política externa vietnamita no fim do século XX e início do século XXI. Por fim, a pesquisa aborda dados sobre visitas oficiais, apoio em instituições multilaterais e comércio bilateral entre Brasil e Vietnã. (shrink)

This article aims to identify the possibility of interpreting in Schiller's philosophical thought a unity, as opposed to the Kantian duality. For this we will resort to the "center of the thing" as identified by Schiller, which is in the third series of letters published in Die Horen, which formed, together with the first and second series, the Aesthetic Education of Man.

The literature provides different methodologies for sampling social wasps, including, flight intercept trap type Malaise and Attractive trap, however, there is no consensus on its use. In this respect, the aim of this study was to evaluate the best use of Malaise traps and Attractive trap in biodiversity work of social wasps, and generate a collection protocol for the use of these traps. The study was conducted in the Parque Estadual do Rio Doce, located in the east of the state (...) of Minas Gerais, in the years 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004 and in the Botanical Garden of the Federal University of Juiz de Fora, located in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais, in years 2011, 2012 and 2013. 15 species were collected using Malaise traps, and, 26 species of social wasps were collected using Attractive traps. Although the negative aspects of both traps, complementary methodologies surveys varying social wasps are useful and it is recommended to choose for using in accordance with the logistical field. (shrink)

Mediante una investigación teórica y de trabajo de campo en relación a la adaptación de la titulación de arquitectura al EEES y con el objetivo de hacer efectivo un despliegue gradual del desarrollo de las competencias del submódulo de dibujo, se exponen los resultados de la coordinación entre asignaturas y una selección crítica y comparativa de actividades de aprendizaje. Se indaga además en la dispar distribución de las materias de dibujo de la adaptación al plan de bolonia, concluyendo con una (...) propuesta de despliegue independiente y mejorada del submódulo desvinculado de las materias que no le son afines. (shrink)

Neste texto pretendo analiticamente tomar o conceito foucaultiano de biopolítica no sentido de escancarar o movimento que ora inclui ora exclui certas formas de vida no contexto da pandemia da COVID-19. A questão é saber que formas de vida são levadas em consideração quando os desafios a que são confrontados gestores da ordem governamental conduzem medidas pautadas por uma lógica econômica neoliberal. Devo trabalhar metodologicamente sobre atos enunciativos dispersos proferidos em diferentes instâncias de saber. De partida, adoto o pressuposto de (...) que vozes de saber – política, estatística, biomédica --, nem sempre coincidem no modo de fazer dizer e significar o fenômeno da pandemia. O dispositivo analítico, portanto, deve alinhar os dizeres sobre a pandemia do novo coronavírus à maneira de compreendê-los. Quero mostrar a atualidade do conceito de biopolítica como operador da análise de um certo jogo de relações de poder historicamente situado no presente de uma pandemia em curso. (shrink)

In this essay we will argue for the following theses: 1- know-how is not a form of practical knowledge devoid of propositional sense; 2- the relationship between each perception and the body itself is metaphysically contingent (organisms and bodies can vary, as can even the spaces they occupy in the same experience vary), 3- it is up to the brain to configure or to shape a physical body (Körper) into a living body (Leib) and not the other way around; 4- (...) phenomenal externalism of enactivist nature, even in its mild form, is empirically implausible: the correlation between the conscious character of sensory experience with spatiotemporal neuronal patterns is much more systematic and regular than with anything outside the brain. But in its radical form is entirely implausible and contra-intuitive: phenomenal duplicates are not necessarily duplicates of agency; in short, 5-we are our own brain that has a body, avatars, and artifacts, properly configured, and molded by the brain, and not a body that has a brain among other essential organs. (shrink)

in this article, we experience the exercise of a screen ethnocartography in agency with the film Beasts of the southern wild by the director Benh Zeitlin. We tested a film experimentation that led to a renewed writing ways of life. We bet on cinema and childhood as possibilities for creating cracks and a stutter of language for the creation of new worlds and ways of living. In cinema images less as a representation, and more as art that proposes incompleteness, fissure, (...) a hole in appearances. In childhood as an exercise of differentiation and resistance to dominant narratives in a given context. In childhood as a limiting experience of/in language, tirelessly exposing the human condition in front of the world. Thus, accompanying the main character of the plot, little Hushpuppy — a six-year-old resident of the “Charles Doucet Island”, experienced as “the Bathtub” —, we are shaken by the forms of life there, considered bestial and not recognized by city humans. Hushpuppy, his father and friends resist attempts to destroy their existence by the forms of the state that try to domesticate them, imbued with the logic that primitives must come to civilization, just as children must become adults. (shrink)

Abstract: The Pull Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hy- potheses is applied to a Multivariate Normal Structure (MNS) model. In the FBST we compute the evidence against the precise hypothesis. This evi- dence is the probability of the Highest Relative Surprise Set (HRSS) tangent to the sub-manifold (of the parameter space) that defines the null hypothesis. The MNS model we present appears when testing equivalence conditions for genetic expression measurements, using micro-array technology.

The goal of this paper is to assess biological naturalism in light of the adaptationist debate. Searle is famous for explicity pursuing a biological foundation for his theory of consciousness. However, evolutionary biology receives little attention in his work, which results in crucial theoretical confusions over adaptationism. In this paper, we will propose two theses concerning Searle's approach to consciousness in the context of the adaptationist debate. First, Searle's attack on adaptationism only applies to its naive version, failing to touch (...) any of the more sophisticated versions of adaptationism, especially the empirical one. Second, despite his attack, in the end Searle embraces empirical adaptationism about consciousness. Howsoever, Searle's empirical foundation for his thesis that the evolutionary advantage of consciousness lies in a greater power of discrimination faces a serious problem of generalization regarding non-human animals. (shrink)

A proposta é construir uma ponte de intersecção entre os pensamentos de Pareyson, Aristóteles e Platão, e, ancorando-a nos conceitos cunhados na Teoria da Formatividade, expor como o filósofo italiano relê as problemáticas colocadas pelos filósofos gregos antigos e de que maneira esta interseção de pensamentos e conceitos contribuem para a reflexão sobre Arte na atualidade e em particular para a análise da produção pictórica de Gerhard Richter.

O presente artigo se propõe definir o que é predicação em Aristóteles, como predicamos e qual o critério para determinar se uma predicação é verdadeira ou falsa. Nossas referências serão o livro Das Categorias, do capítulo 1 ao 5 e Da interpretação do capítulo 1 ao 6. Concluiremos que a teoria da predicação em Aristóteles afirma que definir algo é predicar e que o critério de verdade de uma proposição é a sua correspondência aos fatos.

Os autores estudam um caso de linchamento ocorrido na cidade de Guarujá. Formulam sua hipótese a partir da teoria mimética de René Girard, demonstrando, no caso concreto, a presença de sinais vitimários que tornam um indivíduo suscetível a ser tomado como bode expiatório de uma comunidade em crise. Problematizam sobre a questão da mentalidade persecutória, justiça comunitária e sistema judiciário.

Resumo: Sabe-se que a pecuária é uma parcela do agronegócio que move a economia do país, e incluso está a produção leiteira, que tem, a cada ano seu desenvolvimento elevado, de forma em que é priorizado a eficiência no aumento de sua produção, com o objetivo de suprir a demanda, e a maior rentabilidade do produtor. Diante disso, medidas de manejo reprodutivo e alimentar são adotadas, sendo estas capazes de elevar a produtividade com o menor custo possível. O trabalho objetivou (...) pautar acerca do conhecimento sobre o manejo nutricional correto e escore corporal, que afetam diretamente a produtividade do animal, o conhecimento acerca do ciclo reprodutivo de vacas, expondo a detecção de estro, bem como metodologias eficazes aplicadas na reprodução, e práticas de bem estar, que, quando ausente, é apontado como um dos precursores da ineficiência reprodutiva. Palavras-chave: Inseminação Artificial 1; detecção de cio 2; leite 3. Abstract: It is known that livestock is a part of agribusiness that drives the country's economy, and is even milk production, which has, every year, its high development, so that it is prioritizing efficiency in increasing its production, with the objective of supplying the demand, and the greater producer profitability. Therefore, reproductive and food management measures are adopted, being able to increase productivity with the lowest possible cost. The work aimed guide about knowledge about correct nutritional management and body score, which affect directly the animal's productivity, knowledge about the reproductive cycle of cows, exposing estrus detection, as well as effective methodologies applied in reproduction, and practices of well-being, which, when absent, is pointed out as one of the precursors of inefficiency reproductive. Keywords: Artificial Insemination 1; heat detection 2; milk 3. -/- REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS ALFIERI, A. A. LEME, R. ALFIERI, A.F. 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Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal, v. 31, n. 2, p. 205-211, 2007. BERGAMASCHI, M. A. C. M., MACHADO, R. BARBOSA, R. T. Eficiência reprodutiva das vacas leiteiras. Embrapa - Pecuária Sudeste- Circular Técnica (INFOTECA-E). 2010. Arquivo digitaldisponívelem:. Acesso em: 15 de Novembro de 2021. BORGES, A. M.; MARTINS, T. M. Relação entre nutrição e reprodução em rebanhos mestiços leiteiros. In: IV SIMPÓSIO NACIONAL DE BOVINOCULTURA DE LEITE, 2013, Viçosa. Anais ... Viçosa, p. 215-236, 2013. BORGES, A. et al. Reprodução de vacas mestiças: potencialidade e desafios. Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal. v 39. n 1. p 155-163. 2015. CAETANO, R. P. et. al. Manejo reprodutivo da bovinocultura de leite nos assentamentos rurais do município de Ilha Solteira, São Paulo. 8º Congresso de Extensão Universitária da UNESP. ISSN 2176- 9761. p 4. 2015. Arquivo disponível em: CARNEIRO M.A., Bergamaschi M., Machado R. & Barbosa R.T. (2010) Eficiência reprodutiva das vacas leiteiras. Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste. Circular Técnica,64. ISSN: 1981- 2086. CERVO. H J. Fatores intrínsecos à produção, o uso da inseminação artificial e os objetivos de seleção na pecuária leiteira do sul do Brasil, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. 2014. 228f. Tese (Doutorado em Zootecnia) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul – UFRS, Porto Alegre. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Fisiologia Clínica do Ciclo Estral de Vacas Leiteiras: Desenvolvimento Folicular, Corpo Lúteo e Etapas do Estro. 2020. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Fisiologia da Reprodução Animal: Ovulação, Controle e Sincronização do Cio. 2020. DA SILVA, et al. Manual de Exame Ginecológico da Vaca. IX Mostra Nacional de Iniciação Científica e Tecnológica Interdisciplinar (MICTI) - IFC - Instituto Federal Catarinense. 2016. Arquivo digital disponível em: Acesso em: 15 de Novembro de 2021. DIAS. J C. et al. Alguns aspectos da interação nutrição-reprodução em bovinos: energia, proteínas, minerais e vitaminas. Revista Pubvet. v. 4 n. 5 p. Art. 738-743. 2010. FERNANDES, A. F. A. OLIVEIRA, J. A. QUEIROZ, S. A. Escore de condição corporal em ruminantes. Revista Ars Veterinária. v. 32, n. 1, p. 55-66, 2016. FERREIRA, A. M. Reprodução da Fêmea Bovina. Fisiologia aplicada e problemas mais comuns (causas e tratamentos). Juiz de Fora, MG: Edição do autor, 2010. FRANCO, F. F. Escore de condição corporal e desempenho reprodutivo de vacas leiteiras mestiças lactantes, Minas Gerais, Brasil. 2015. 59f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências Veterinárias) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia. GARCIA, J. R. A. SILVA, N. SILVEIRA, W. TEIXEIRA, M. C. C. Estudo epidemiológico de problemas reprodutivos em rebanhos bovinos na bacia leiteira de Goiânia. Revista Eletrônica - Arquivo Brasileiro de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia. v 57. n 6. p 720-725. 2005. IVANOU, A. V. Clínica e reprodução de bovinos leiteiros. Évora, Portugal. 100f. 2015. Dissertação (Mestrado em Medicina Veterinária) - Universidade de Évora - Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Évora. MANTECA, X. et al. Bem-estar animal: conceitos e formas práticas de avaliação dos sistemas deprodução de suínos. Revista - Semina: Ciências Agrárias. v. 34 n. 2. p 4213-4229. 2013. MOURA, M. S. et al. Manejo reprodutivo de bovinos na propriedade rural. Revista PUBVET. v. 5. n 9.ed. 156. art. 1055, 2011. MUNIS DE OLIVEIRA, G. Fisiologia da Reprodução Bovina e Métodos de Controle do Ciclo Estral. Trabalho de conclusão do curso de especialização em Reprodução e Produção de Bovinos–UCB. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2006. NETO, Alberto Chambela. Avaliação da taxa de prenhez de vacas de leite com a utilização de protocolos com e sem a presença de folículos estimulantes. Revista Ifes Ciência-ISSN 2359- 4799, v. 5, n. 1, 2019. NOGUEIRA, E. et al. Nutrição aplicada à reprodução de bovinos de corte. Embrapa PantanalCapítuloem livro científico. Embrapa Pantanal - Capítulo em livro científico (ALICE). ed. 10. p 141-156. 2015. PEGORARO, L. M. C.; SAALFELD, M. H.; WEISSHEIMER, C. F.; VIEIRA, A. D. Manejo Reprodutivo em Bovinos de Leite. Embrapa Clima Temperado, id.13081, 2009. PEIXOTO JUNIOR, K.C. FIRMIANO, A. C. CRESPILHO, A.M. Relação entre reprodução e produção debovinos de leite. Revista PUBVET, Londrina. v 7. n 24. ed 247. art. 1635. 2013. PEREIRA, M.A et al. Parâmetros da Fisiologia reprodutiva e utilização de hormônios na sincronizaçãode estro em vacas leiteiras. Revista VeZ em Minas. a XXII. p 117. 2013. PRATA, M. A.; PEREIRA, M. C.; FARO, L; CARDOSO, V. L. et al. Efeito do intervalo de partos sobre a eficiência produtiva e econômica em rebanhos gir leiteiro. B. Indústr. Anim., Nova Odessa, v.71, n.1, p.1-7, 2014. Rebanho bovino tem leve alta em 2019, após dois anosseguidos de quedas. Agência de notícias IBGE, 2020. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 26, setembro de 2021. RENNO F.P; BARLETTA, R.V.; FRIETAS JUNIOR J.E.; et al. Escore de condição corporal e sua relação com produtividade, saúde e bem estar de vacas em lactação. Em: 1st international Symposium of Dairy Cattle. III Simpósio Nacional de Bovincultrura Leiteira. Universidade Federal de Viçosa, MG. Novembro 2011. RUAS, J. R. M; MENESES, A. C.; CARVALHO, B. C.; QUEIROZ, D. S.; SILVA, E. A. da; FERREIRA, J. J. Sistema de produção de leite com vacas F1 Holandês x Zebu. Informe Agropecuário, v.31, p.63-71, 2010. SANTOS, M de. A. R. Efficiency of two doses of D-cloprostenol for synchronization of estrus in bovines in the different phases of the estrous cycle. Minas Gerais, Brasil. 46 f. 2001. Dissertação (Mestrado em Zootecnia e Recursos Pesqueiros) - Universidade Jose do Rosario Vellano, Alfenas.. SARTORI, R. GUARDIEIRO, M. M. Fatores nutricionais associados à reprodução de fêmea bovina. Revista Brasileira de Zootecnia. v 39. p 422-432. 2010. SCHAFHAUSER JUNIOR, J. PEGORARO, L. M. C. ZANELA, M. B. Tecnologias para sistemas de produção de leite. Embrapa Clima Temperado - Livro técnico. ed 1. p 437. 2016. SOUSA, G. G. T. et al. Monta natural versus inseminação artificial em bovinos. Revista PUBVET. v 6. n35. ed 222. art. 1473. 2012. TRIANA, E. L. C. JIMENEZ, C. R. TORRES, C A. A. Eficiência reprodutiva em bovinos de leite. Revista Eletrônica da Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV. v 1. 2012. Artigo eletrônico disponível em: Acesso em: 02 de outubro de 2021. (shrink)

Much forensic inference based upon DNA evidence is made assuming Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) for the genetic loci being used. Several statistical tests to detect and measure deviation from HWE have been devised, and their limitations become more obvious when testing for deviation within multiallelic DNA loci. The most popular methods-Chi-square and Likelihood-ratio tests-are based on asymptotic results and cannot guarantee a good performance in the presence of low frequency genotypes. Since the parameter space dimension increases at a quadratic rate on (...) the number of alleles, some authors suggest applying sequential methods, where the multiallelic case is reformulated as a sequence of “biallelic” tests. However, in this approach it is not obvious how to assess the general evidence of the original hypothesis; nor is it clear how to establish the significance level for its acceptance/rejection. In this work, we introduce a straightforward method for the multiallelic HWE test, which overcomes the aforementioned issues of sequential methods. The core theory for the proposed method is given by the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), an intuitive Bayesian approach which does not assign positive probabilities to zero measure sets when testing sharp hypotheses. We compare FBST performance to Chi-square, Likelihood-ratio and Markov chain tests, in three numerical experiments. The results suggest that FBST is a robust and high performance method for the HWE test, even in the presence of several alleles and small sample sizes. (shrink)

t Intentional sampling methods are non-randomized procedures that select a group of individuals for a sample with the purpose of meeting specific prescribed criteria. In this paper we extend previous works related to intentional sampling, and address the problem of sequential allocation for clinical trials with few patients. Roughly speaking, patients are enrolled sequentially, according to the order in which they start the treatment at the clinic or hospital. The allocation problem consists in assigning each new patient to one, and (...) only one, of the alternative treatment arms. The main requisite is that the profiles in the alternative arms remain similar with respect to some relevant patients’ attributes (age, gender, disease, symptom severity and others). We perform numerical experiments based on a real case study and discuss how to conveniently set up perturbation parameters, in order to yield a suitable balance between optimality – the similarity among the relative frequencies of patients in the several categories for both arms, and decoupling – the absence of a tendency to allocate each pair of patients consistently to the same arm. (shrink)

The Generalized Poisson Distribution (GPD) adds an extra parameter to the usual Poisson distribution. This parameter induces a loss of homogeneity in the stochastic processes modeled by the distribution. Thus, the generalized distribution becomes an useful model for counting processes where the occurrence of events is not homogeneous. This model creates the need for an inferential procedure, to test for the value of this extra parameter. The FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test) is a Bayesian hypotheses test procedure, capable of providing (...) an evidence measure on sharp hypotheses (where the dimension of the parametric space under the null hypotheses is smaller than that of the full parametric space). The goal of this work is study the empirical properties of the FBST for testing the nullity of extra parameter of the generalized Poisson distribution. Numerical experiments show a better performance of FBST with respect to the classical likelihood ratio test, and suggest that FBST is an efficient and robust tool for this application. (shrink)

Intentional sampling methods are non-probabilistic procedures that select a group of individuals for a sample with the purpose of meeting specific prescribed criteria. Intentional sampling methods are intended for exploratory research or pilot studies where tight budget constraints preclude the use of traditional randomized representative sampling. The possibility of subsequently generalize statistically from such deterministic samples to the general population has been the issue of long standing arguments and debates. Nevertheless, the intentional sampling techniques developed in this paper explore pragmatic (...) strategies for overcoming some of the real or perceived shortcomings and limitations of intentional sampling in practical applications. (shrink)

The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses is presented, with some applications relevant to reliability theory. The FBST is an alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-ualue.s. In the FBST we compute the evidence of the precise hypothesis. This evidence is the probability of the complement of a credible set "tangent" to the sub-manifold (of the para,rreter space) that defines the null hypothesis. We use the FBST in an application requiring a quality control of used components, based (...) on remaining life statistics. (shrink)

This article presents a two level hierarchical forecasting model developed in a consulting project for a Brazilian magazine publishing company. The first level uses a VARMA model and considers econometric variables. The second level takes into account qualitative aspects of each publication issue, and is based on polynomial networks generated by Genetic Programming (GP).

Clearing algorithms are at the core of modern payment systems, facilitating the settling of multilateral credit messages with (near) minimum transfers of currency. Traditional clearing procedures use batch processing based on MILP - mixed-integer linear programming algorithms. The MILP approach demands intensive computational resources; moreover, it is also vulnerable to operational risks generated by possible defaults during the inter-batch period. This paper presents TORC3 - the Token-Ring Clearing Algorithm for Currency Circulation. In contrast to the MILP approach, TORC3 is a (...) real time heuristic procedure, demanding modest computational resources, and able to completely shield the clearing operation against the participating agents’ risk of default. (shrink)

The Fully Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) is a coherent Bayesian significance test for sharp hypotheses. This paper proposes the FBST as a model selection tool for general mixture models, and compares its performance with Mclust, a model-based clustering software. The FBST robust performance strongly encourages further developments and investigations.

The data analyzed in this paper are part of the results described in Bueno et al. (2000). Three cytogenetics endpoints were analyzed in three populations of a species of wild rodent – Akodon montensis – living in an industrial, an agricultural, and a preservation area at the Itajaí Valley, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The polychromatic/normochromatic ratio, the mitotic index, and the frequency of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocites were used in an attempt to establish a genotoxic profile of each area. It (...) was assumed that the three populations were in the same conditions with respect to the influence of confounding factors such as animal age, health, nutrition status, presence of pathogens, and intra- and inter-populational genetic variability. Therefore, any differences found in the endpoints analyzed could be attributed to the external agents present in each area. The statistical models used in this paper are mixtures of negative-binomials and Poisson variables. The Poisson variables are used as approximations of binomials for rare events. The mixing distributions are beta densities. The statistical analyzes are under the bayesian perspective, as opposed to the frequentist ones often considered in the literature, as for instance in Bueno et al. (2000). (shrink)

Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if (...) in fact it should be m - 1. If the hypothesis is rejected, m is increased and a new test is carried out. The method continues (increasing m) until the hypothesis is accepted. The theoretical core of the method is the full Bayesian significance test, an intuitive Bayesian approach, which needs no model complexity penalization nor positive probabilities for sharp hypotheses. Numerical experiments were based on a cDNA microarray dataset consisting of expression levels of 205 genes belonging to four functional categories, for 10 distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To analyze the method’s sensitivity to data dimension, we performed principal components analysis on the original dataset and predicted the number of classes using 2 to 10 principal components. Compared to Mclust (model-based clustering), our method shows more consistent results. (shrink)

This paper presents REAL, a Real-Valued Attribute Classification Tree Learning Algorithm. Several of the algorithm's unique features are explained by úe users' demands for a decision support tool to be used for evaluating financial operations strategies. Compared to competing algorithms, in our applications, REAL presents maj or advantages : (1) The REAL classification trees usually have smaller error rates. (2) A single conviction (or trust) measure at each leaf is more convenient than the traditional (probability, confidence-level) pair. (3) No need (...) for an external pruning criterion. (shrink)

This article describes the Full Bayesian Significance Test for the problem of separate hypotheses. Numerical experiments are performed for the Gompertz vs. Weibull life span test.

The Fully Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) is a coherent Bayesian significance test for sharp hypotheses. This paper explores the FBST as a model selection tool for general mixture models, and gives some computational experiments for Multinomial-Dirichlet-Normal-Wishart models.

Tyler Burge is famous for defending primitivist naturalism about mental representations, according to which mental representations are primitive natural states. Primitivist naturalism contrasts with semantic reductionism, according to which mental representations are reducible to more fundamental natural states. Burge developed the most compelling and influential attack on semantic reductionism from a primitivist naturalist point of view. My goal in this paper is to defend semantic reduc- tionism from Burge’s attack. I assess and refute his objection to the motivations for semantic (...) reductionism and his objection to the semantic reductionist theory that he takes to be the most promising one, namely, teleosemantics. I argue that in spite of the ingenuity of Burge’s objections, they fail to show that there is no motivation for taking representational states as reducible to more fundamental natural states or that the core thesis of teleosemantics is flawed. (shrink)